Codebook


Explaining state participation in ten universal WMD treaties: A survival analysis of ratification decisions

Jan Karlas




Variable in the dataset - definition and source


stcode - Correlates of War country code (CoW 2023a), additional codes: 1001 - Cook Islands, 1002 - Holy See, 1003 - Niue, 1004 - State of Palestine

stname - the name of the country	

stabb - the abbreviation of the country	

treaty - the code of the treaty	

year - the year of observation	

unsd2 - UNSD region (UNSD 2019)	

ratif - the year of ratification (UN 2022; UNODA 2022)	

start - the left boundary of the time interval	

stop - the right boundary of the time interval	

stop2 - the square of the right boundary of the time interval	

stop3 - the cube of the right boundary of the time interval 	

result - the ratification outcome	

heg - P5 country (country with a permament membership in the UNSC)	

pursposs (Weapons) - the pursuit/possession of the respective WMD (Bleek 2017; Center for Non-Proliferation Studies 2008; Horowitz and Narang 2014) 	

purs - the pursuit of the respective WMD (Bleek 2017; Center for Non-Proliferation Studies 2008; Horowitz and Narang 2014)

poss - the possession of the respective WMD (Bleek 2017; Center for Non-Proliferation Studies 2008; Horowitz and Narang 2014)	

lho (LH order) - the estimated ideal point of the support for the liberal hegemonic order (Bailey, Strezhnev, and Voeten 2017)	

aus - the percentage of votes that agree with the US on the same issue (Bailey, Strezhnev, and Voeten 2017)

gdppcln1 (Development) - the natural log of the real GDP per capita (2005 prices) (Gleditsch, 2002)

gdppcln2 - the natural log of the GDP per capita (current prices) (Gleditsch, 2002)

reg5 (Regional ratifications) - the percentage of all other states that belong to the same regional group and have ratified the treaty (the values are lagged by one year) (UN 2022; UNODA 2022; UNSD 2019)	

neighratifav - the percentage of all the neighbouring states that have ratified the treaty (the values are lagged by one year) (Stinnett et al., 2002; UN 2022; UNODA 2022) 	

univ - the percentage of all states that have ratified the treaty (UN 2022; UNODA 2022)	

polity (Democracy) - the polity scores of the Polity IV data (Polity IV 2018)	

democ - democracy values (the Democracy and Dictatorship data) (Cheibub et al., 2010)

popln (Population) - the natural log of the country’s population (Gleditsch, 2002)	

gdpln - the natural log of the real GDP (2005) (Gleditsch, 2002)	

cincpln - the values of the Composite Index of National Capability (Singer, Bremer & Stuckey, 1972)	

prio (Domestic conflicts) - the average annual number of internal conflicts that took place in the country in the last five years (Gleditsch et al., 2002)	

ios (IO membership) - the number of international organizations joined by the given state (Pevehouse et al., 2020)

hurdle4 (Legislative constraints) - the requirement of legislative approval of international treaties (Simmons, 2009)

warsaw (Warsaw Pact) - membership in the Warsaw Pact	

later (Later independence) - a country became independent more than five years after the treaty was opened for ratification (CoW 2023b)	

midsa - the average number of militarized disputes in which a country participated per year during the last five years (Palmer et al., 2020)	

rivala - the average number of rivalries in which a country participated per year during the last five years (Diehl, Goertz & Gallegos, 2021) 	

midsneigh - the sum of the five-year rolling means of the numbers of militarized disputes with each of the neighboring countries (Palmer et al., 2020; Stinnett et al., 2002)

rivalneigh - the sum of the five-year rolling means of the numbers of rivalries with each of the neighboring countries (Diehl, Goertz & Gallegos, 2021; Stinnett et al., 2002)	

pact - defense pact with the USA or USSR/Russia (Gibler, 2009)	

postcw - a post-Cold War year



List of sources

Bailey, M. A., Strezhnev, A. & Voeten, E. (2017). Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(2), 430-456. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595700

Bleek, P. C. (2017, June). When Did (and Didn’t) States Proliferate? Chronicling the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Discussion Paper. Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/when-did-and-didnt-states-proliferate

Center for Non-proliferation Studies (2008). Chemical and Biological Weapons: Possession and Programs Past and Present, https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2008-Chemical-and-Biological-Weapons_-Possession-and-Programs-Past-and-Present.pdf

Cheibub, J. A., Gandhi, J., & Vreeland, J. R. (2010). Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice, 143(2-1), 67-101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-009-9491-2

CoW (2023a). COW Country Codes, https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/cow-country-codes-2/

CoW (2023b). State System Membership (v2016), https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/state-system-membership/

Diehl, P. F., Goertz, G., & Gallegos, Y. (2021). Peace data: Concept, measurement, patterns, and research agenda. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 38(5), 605-624. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894219870288

Gibler, D. M. (2009). International Military Alliances, 1648-2008. CQ Press.

Gleditsch, K. S. (2002). Expanded Trade and GDP Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(5), 712-24. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046005006

Gleditsch, N. P., Wallensteen, P., Eriksson, M., Sollenberg, M., & Strand, H. (2002). Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 39(5), 615–637. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343302039005007

Horowitz, M. C., & Narang, N. (2014). Poor Man’s Atomic Bomb? Exploring the Relationship between “Weapons of Mass Destruction.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 58(3), 509-535. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002713509049

Palmer, G., D'Orazio, V., Kenwick, M.R., & McManus, R. W. (2020). Updating the Militarized Interstate Dispute Data: A Response to Gibler, Miller, and Little. International Studies Quarterly, 64(2), 469-475. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqz045

Pevehouse, J. C.W., Nordstron, T., McManus, R. W., & Jamison, A. S. (2020). Tracking Organizations in the World: The Correlates of War IGO Version 3.0 datasets. Journal of Peace Research, 57(3), 492-503. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319881175

Polity IV Project (2018). Polity IV Annual Time-Series, 1800-2018. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html

Simmons, B. A. (2009). Mobilizing for Human Rights: International Law in Domestic Politics. Cambridge University Press.

Singer, J. D., Bremer, S., & Stuckey, J. (1972). Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965. In B. Russett (Ed.), Peace, War, and Numbers (pp. 19-48). Sage.

Stinnett, D. M., Tir, J., Schafer, P., Diehl, P. F., & Gochman, Ch. (2002). The Correlates of War Project Direct Contiguity Data, Version 3. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 19(2), 58-66. https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420201900203

UNODA (2022). Disarmament Treaties Database, https://treaties.unoda.org/

UN (2022). United Nations Treaty Collection, https://treaties.un.org/

UNSD (2019). Methodology, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/


